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Deutsche: "Incredibly Important" To Watch Rental Inflation

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche is roughly in line with expectations for October core CPI (+0.37% unrounded; also see +0.47% headline), seeing the main driver of the re-acceleration in prices vs September "likely to be price pressures in categories which are sensitive to supply shocks, most notably new and used vehicles."

  • Downside risks center on Covid-sensitive sectors, including lodging away from home and airfares (Delta wave impact on travel).
  • They'll also be looking closely at rental inflation - while September's rise "appeared to be quite narrow in terms of geography, largely confined to the South, it will be incredibly important to monitor whether or not this pace remains elevated, given that these two categories make up about a third of the expenditure basket."

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