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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Deutsche Bank notes that the continued rise in 5-yr inflation breakevens (2.72% on Monday, the highest level since 2006) despite Friday's weak jobs report can be partly explained by anticipation ahead of week's upcoming April CPI and PPI reports, which "will certainly be well scrutinized for signals that the economic data could push the Fed to talk about tapering sooner rather than later."
- For this month's CPI report out Wednesday, Deutsche sees headline CPI of +0.30% unrounded / core +0.39%, with PPI headline +0.2%/ core +0.3%.
- These forecasts imply they are looking for an above-consensus core CPI figure and in-line on PPI. Current BBG consensus for PPI core is +0.4%, with CPI core +0.3%.
- They note that the March CPI report was "one-sided" with "the vast majority of surprises at the component level" to the upside, which normally would persuade Deutsche to moderate its expectations lower, but they note "those upside surprises seemed to occur in categories related to reopening, particularly where demand may be coming back somewhat faster than supply" so may persist.
BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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