Did Powell Know Today’s Productivity Data?

• We have seen some speculation of whether Powell had seen Friday’s payrolls data prior to yesterday’s FOMC press conference when it came to him saying it’s unlikely the next rate move is a hike.
• Assuming prior guidance on the matter from Powell himself still stands, that’s unlikely but he might have been privy to today’s productivity and labor cost Q1 data – see below.
• Analyst consensus sees nonfarm productivity growth slowing to 0.5% annualized in Q1 preliminary data, from 3.3% in Q4 (revised one tenth higher in last week’s correction) and 4.6% in Q3 (revised -0.1pp).
• That sees ULC growth expected to jump to 4% annualized after two quarters averaging just 0.2% annualized.

Speaking with David Rubenstein - Feb 2023

• Rubenstein: So let me ask it another way. So, by the way, when the numbers come out, the jobs numbers, five hundred nineteen thousand jobs. Does anybody call you up? The government give you a little heads up? This is going to happen or they never do that.
• Powell: So on some data, sometimes we get data. Just the night before. And it's only me. Only me. And so but not on all pieces of data. It's a very small amount of data. And we get it just the night before. For example, if we if we were going to get a big piece of data in the middle of an FOMC meeting, as often happens on the day of an FOMC meeting, it will help me to know it the night before.