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Diesel in Stronger Backwardation Than Crude

OIL

Concern for tight near term global diesel supplies during the temporary Russian export ban and during the refining maintenance season are supporting the curve backwardation. Global inventories remain low despite refiners running at high utilisation rates. The strength of diesel market is supportive of the wider oil markets.

  • The OPEC+ output cuts have been the primary driver of higher crude prices but also supports diesel due to the tight supplies of the medium sour crude which offers a higher yield of middle distillates for refiners such as diesel and jet fuel.
  • The prompt Gasoil spread is slightly softer today but still up at 32.5$/mt (4.36$/bbl) compared to around 15$/mt at the start of the month. Dec23-Dec24 is over 115$/mt (15.47$/bbl) compared to just 20$/mt at the start of July.
  • Brent backwardation is also strong but is weaker in comparison to the diesel curve. The prompt Brent spread is 1.24$/bbl and Dec23-Dec24 at 9.30$/bbl.
  • Brent NOV 23 up 1.3% at 94.49$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 23 up 1.8% at 91.2$/bbl
  • Gasoil OCT 23 down -1.3% at 993.75$/mt
  • Brent NOV 23-DEC 23 up 0.2$/bbl at 1.24$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.77$/bbl at 9.38$/bbl
  • Gasoil OCT 23-NOV 23 down -2.25$/mt at 33$/mt
  • Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 down -7.75$/mt at 116.25$/mt


Source: Bloomberg

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