Dips Sub 0.5900 Were Supported, RBNZ Expected To Hold Steady Today

NZD/USD was mostly on the back foot post the Asia close, although dips sub 0.5900 were supported. Lows in NY trade were just under 0.5890, while the pair tracks near 0.5910 in early trade today. We were down 0.64% in Tuesday's session, the third worst performer in the G10 space (behind NOK and AUD). USD gains were evident across the board with the exception of USD/JPY, which slumped amid intervention speculation.

• Early September lows in NZD/USD were around the 0.5860 level. On the topside the 50-day EMA is near 0.5980, the 100-day close to 0.6050, which we couldn't breach during the late September run higher.
• In the cross asset space, broader equity sentiment faltered across both US and EU markets on Tuesday (SPX down 1.37%). US yields rose to fresh cyclical highs. The 10yr +12bps to 4.795%. JOLTS job opening data surprised on the upside.
• Today the focus firmly rests on the RBNZ outcome. No change is expected, with the policy rate currently at 5.50%. While we don’t expect there to be major changes to the meeting statement, it will be watched closely for any discussion of upside risks to the inflation outlook and indications that forecasts might be revised higher, see our full preview here.
• Released overnight was September core logic house price data. We were flat m/m, -7.3%y/y, which suggests the worst of the of the downside y/y momentum is now behind us.