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Disinflationary CPI Green Lights Another Fed Pause in Dec

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures near late session highs after the bell, actually holding to a narrow range ever since marking midmorning highs following this morning's lower than expected CPI data: CPI MoM (0.0% vs. 0.1% est, 0.4% prior), YoY (3.2% vs. 3.3% est, 3.7% prior); CPI Ex Food/Energy MoM (0.2% vs. 0.3% est, 0.3% prior), YoY (4.0% vs. 4.1% est).
  • Dec'23 10Y futures topped initial resistance (108-25, High Nov 3 and the next bull trigger) to 108-31 high, the contract currently trading 108-28.5 (+1-14.5), yield currently 4.4375% (-.2004) vs. 4.4298% low.
  • Heavy overall volumes (TYZ3>2.4M) as markets react to this morning disinflationary CPI inflation measures for October. USD index greenback slowly been extending its decline throughout the session with the USD index down 1.5% as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • Post-CPI: projected rate cut resurfaces in early 2024: December at 0bp at 5.338%, January 2024 cumulative -.5bp (7.1bp pre-CPI) at 5.332%, March 2024 pricing in -32.9% chance of a .25 rate cut (-16% pre-CPI) with cumulative of -8.7bp at 5.240%, May 2024 pricing in -52.8% chance of a rate cut with cumulative of -21.9bp at 5.108%. Fed terminal has fallen to 5.325% in Feb'24 vs. 5.405% pre-CPI.
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