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Distillates Deficit in Q2 Switch to Surplus in H2: Energy Aspects

DIESEL

Global diesel demand is forecast to increase by 340kb/d y/y in 2025, led by a 150kb/d rise in the East of Suez region, according to Energy Aspects via Bloomberg.

  • Demand for 0.1% sulfur gasoil to rise 80kb/d y/y, boosted by a new sulfur emission control area in the Mediterranean from May 2025 and leading to European diesel demand growth of 49kb/d.
  • Global diesel supply is expected to rise by 380kb/d y/y, led by a rise of 170kb/d from Asia-Pacific.
  • Global jet demand is set to rise by 300kb/d y/y to 8.23mb/d. Demand is expected back above 2019 demand as refiners edge jet yields back toward pre-pandemic levels.
  • Lower than expected turnarounds have boosted European refining runs up by 340kb/d for February-April this year but the forecast for Chinese refinery runs in Q2 have reduced by 520kb/d due to maintenance at Rongsheng, Hengli.
  • The global distillates balance is set for a deficit of 307kb/d for 2Q switching to a surplus of 577kb/d in Q3 and 378kb/d in 4Q.

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