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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CEE
- While EURRUB keeps trading close to a 7-year low, EURHUF has been constantly reaching new highs, breaking above its all-time-high of 404.80 this morning.
- The forint has been extremely sensitive to the Russia/Ukraine conflict in addition to the rise in political risk due to the divergence with Europe since the start of the war.
- The 185bps NBH hike last Tuesday was not enough to ease the selling pressure on the forint.
- We have seen recently that investors have been questioning if the Ruble ‘recovery’ was ‘real’ or just an ‘illusion’ as some analysts are expecting up to 10%+ contraction in GDP in 2022 with Russia recently ‘defaulting’ on its foreign-currency debt.
- Hence, as the Ruble is not a convertible currency anymore, which can attract arbitraging capital flows, the current level of EURRUB is likely to be ‘artificial’ and EURHUF may be a better proxy for EURRUB (along with Russia CDS, VIX…).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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