Divergence In Ukraine Threat Assessment

Recent days has seen an increased divergence in the threat assessment of war in Ukraine. Russian facing analysists have read signals from Russia as indicative of a cooling of Russian intentions.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been circulating the Russian position that Russia has no intention to invade Ukraine. Some have taken this to suggest that Russia may use concessions offered by the US and NATO on European security framework talks as an offramp.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also suggested that current Russian threat is ‘dangerous but ambiguous’.
• This perceived cooling appears to be in direct contrast to US analysis of the situation. President Biden reportedly made claims of an imminent Russian invasion and troop movements on the Ukrainian border demonstrate that Russia is on an increased war footing. In particular, the US has identified the mobilisation of medical units to the border as part of the final stage of mobilisation.
• In a call today Russian President Vladimir Putin has told French President Emmanuel Macron that West has 'ignored' Russia's security concerns. This does not necessarily mean that Putin is unwilling to negotiate further and the next step is a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Lavrov next week. This meeting should outline if, and how, talks will proceed.