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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Looking at the Dot Plot distributions (and recalling it's 18 participants vs 19 last time, with Brainard departing):
- 2023 dots didn't really shift that much at all - we now have a dot at 5.9%, with 3 seeing a 5.6% end-2023 rate vs 2 last time; but just 3 see rates at 5.4% vs 5 last time. Again, 10 see 5.1%, with just 1 (vs 2 last time) seeing 4.9%.
- The dispersion for 2024 actually narrowed a little, with the bottom dot moving up from 3.1% to 3.4%, and the top dot remaining 5.6%. Brainard being included in this probably would have kept the median at 4.1% vs the 4.3% split decision.
- And for end-2025 - which really matters least in terms of interpreting the tea leaves - very little change, though 2 fewer participants saw rates below 3% by that point.
Source: Fed, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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