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Doves vs Hawks On Falling Temporary Help Services

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • The fall in temporary help services has increasingly come into focus from analysts and FOMC members alike, declining for five consecutive months into December.
  • The extent to which it might be a leading indicator for a potential broader deterioration sees two schools of thought from FOMC members at either end of the dove-hawk spectrum:
  • Vice Chair Brainard on labour market (Jan 19): “Recent declines in average weekly hours, temporary-help services, and monthly payrolls growth suggest tentative signs that labor demand is cooling. Employment at temporary-help services firms—a good leading indicator—peaked in July 2022 and has been declining since then, ending the year only slightly above its December 2019 level.
  • Gov. Waller: it “may be due at least in part to employers opting to hire full-time workers in place of temps to help keep jobs filled” (Jan 20).

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