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Dovish Reaction On Building Permits Miss Limited By Noise

CANADA
  • Building permits fell by more than expected in September, printing -6.5% M/M (cons -1.2%) after an upward revised 4.3% M/M (cons 3.4).
  • Note though that it was driven by the extremely noisy non-residential sector sliding -21% after +16.1% M/M.
  • Residential building permits meanwhile increased 4.3% after -3.0% M/M (all figures here in value terms).
  • The market reaction is unsurprisingly dovish but likely limited by that non-residential swing. It sees front-end GoCs unwind earlier underperformance to Tsys, now in line 2YY +1bp), with outperformance further out the curve (10YY -2bp vs -0.5bp Tsys).
  • USDCAD meanwhile pushed to new session highs of 1.3800. Resistance remains at the bull trigger at 1.3899 (Nov 1 high).
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