MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

MNI BRIEF: China Has Been In Communication With U.S. On Trade

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Customs Clearance

MNI INTERVIEW2: Policy Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Satisfaction Up

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY68.6 Bln via OMO Thursday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: SlovGB Auction Monday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -62 BCF TO 1,698 BCF MAR 07 WK

MNI: US FEB FINAL DEMAND PPI +0.0%, EX FOOD, ENERGY -0.1%

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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STIR: Dovish Repricing In EUR STIRs, ECB Decision Headlines This Week

STIR
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This morning’s rally in global core FI (see earlier posts for colour) has spilled over into EUR STIRs, with year-end ECB implied rates 3bps below Friday’s close. That leaves ECB-dated OIS pricing 91bps of easing through December, with 75bps of cuts priced through the first half of this year.

  • December ’25 implied rates are still more hawkish than before Friday’s stronger-than-expected January flash PMIs. We note that some analysts have raised questions around the seasonality of the PMIs post-Covid, which may have biased readings higher in Q1.
  • Euribor futures are +1.5 to +4.5 ticks through the blues. ERZ5 is +3.0 ticks at 97.860 this morning, widening the gap with support at 97.7950 (Jan 13 low), which contained downside on Friday.
  • Thursday’s ECB decision headlines this week’s regional data calendar, with a 25bp cut unanimously expected by analysts and essentially fully priced in OIS. Our ECB preview will be released tomorrow.
  • We also get flash Q4 GDP, the ECB's Bank Lending Survey, December money/credit , January EC sentiment and January flash inflation data this week, while the Fed decision and communications from US President Trump will also be in focus.

 

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This morning’s rally in global core FI (see earlier posts for colour) has spilled over into EUR STIRs, with year-end ECB implied rates 3bps below Friday’s close. That leaves ECB-dated OIS pricing 91bps of easing through December, with 75bps of cuts priced through the first half of this year.

  • December ’25 implied rates are still more hawkish than before Friday’s stronger-than-expected January flash PMIs. We note that some analysts have raised questions around the seasonality of the PMIs post-Covid, which may have biased readings higher in Q1.
  • Euribor futures are +1.5 to +4.5 ticks through the blues. ERZ5 is +3.0 ticks at 97.860 this morning, widening the gap with support at 97.7950 (Jan 13 low), which contained downside on Friday.
  • Thursday’s ECB decision headlines this week’s regional data calendar, with a 25bp cut unanimously expected by analysts and essentially fully priced in OIS. Our ECB preview will be released tomorrow.
  • We also get flash Q4 GDP, the ECB's Bank Lending Survey, December money/credit , January EC sentiment and January flash inflation data this week, while the Fed decision and communications from US President Trump will also be in focus.

 

Keep reading...Show less