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Downside PMI surprises could trigger market moves

EUROPEAN DATA

PMIs are due for release this morning and we look for an asymmetric market reaction to surprises. We think that positive surprises may be dismissed as Covid-19 case numbers continue to increase across the region. Negative surprises, particularly if we saw a slew of sub-50 prints, would likely see more market reaction.

  • For Bunds focus is on 175.08, Aug 4 high and a major resistance.
  • Gilts: Resistance is at 137.05, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 4 - 28 decline
  • DXY: The next resistance and hurdle for bulls is at 94.40, 23.6% retracement of the Mar - Sep sell-off.
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