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Downward Revision Takes Gloss Of Durable Goods Beat

US DATA
  • The preliminary durable goods report for October was stronger than expected across the board although negative downward revisions to September took off some of the gloss.
  • The story is one of improved recent momentum but a more mixed outlook: shipments were outright stronger than expected (+1.3 vs 0.2 cons, after smaller than first thought -0.1) whilst orders bounced 0.7% M/M (cons 0.0) after a larger than first thought -0.8% (initial -0.4) leaving little momentum.
  • It leaves a (nominal) trend growth rate for core orders continuing to cool to 5.6% annualized at the softest since Jul’20 in 3M/3M terms, with previously released industrial production growing at an equally relatively tepid 1.5% annualized.

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