MNI BRIEF: BOE Rate Cut Closer But Still Some Way Off - Pill

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 23

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: Kaplan Says Loose Fiscal Is Holding Up Cut

MNI BRIEF: Hungary Central Bank Cuts To 7.75% As Expected

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Tues; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1059 Tues; -5.03% Y/Y

US Treasury Auction Calendar

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, GR Synd; DE Auction Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, GR Synd; DE Auction Wednesday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Downward Surprise In Feb CPIF

SWEDEN
DataHomepageData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Swedish February CPI surprised to the downside on the headline and core CPIF measures. EURSEK saw a ~0.15% knee-jerk higher on release but was unable to breach the 20-day EMA at 11.2155, now up less than 0.1% on the day.

  • CPIF ex-energy was 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.6% cons, 4.4% prior). Headline CPIF was 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.8% cons, 2.9% Riksbank and 3.3% prior)
  • The Riksbank's November MPR projection CPIF ex-energy was for 3.7% Y/Y. Combined with the other data we have received since the February monetary policy meeting (e.g. survey evidence on pricing plans), today's data supports a cut in the first half of 2024.
  • Food and alcoholic beverages were expected to decelerate due to base effects, but the 0.1% M/M rise was softer than the 0.5 to 0.6% M/M estimates we had seen from some analysts. The annual rate was 1.2% Y/Y (vs 3.8% prior).
  • Core goods components also moderated in February, with furniture and household goods inflation at 1.2% Y/Y (vs 3.1% prior).
  • Services components were more mixed, but moderations in restuarants and hotels (4.2% Y/Y vs 4.9% prior) and recreation and culture (3.3% Y/Y vs 4.5% prior) should help the overall services category decelerate on the year.

206 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Swedish February CPI surprised to the downside on the headline and core CPIF measures. EURSEK saw a ~0.15% knee-jerk higher on release but was unable to breach the 20-day EMA at 11.2155, now up less than 0.1% on the day.

  • CPIF ex-energy was 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.6% cons, 4.4% prior). Headline CPIF was 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.8% cons, 2.9% Riksbank and 3.3% prior)
  • The Riksbank's November MPR projection CPIF ex-energy was for 3.7% Y/Y. Combined with the other data we have received since the February monetary policy meeting (e.g. survey evidence on pricing plans), today's data supports a cut in the first half of 2024.
  • Food and alcoholic beverages were expected to decelerate due to base effects, but the 0.1% M/M rise was softer than the 0.5 to 0.6% M/M estimates we had seen from some analysts. The annual rate was 1.2% Y/Y (vs 3.8% prior).
  • Core goods components also moderated in February, with furniture and household goods inflation at 1.2% Y/Y (vs 3.1% prior).
  • Services components were more mixed, but moderations in restuarants and hotels (4.2% Y/Y vs 4.9% prior) and recreation and culture (3.3% Y/Y vs 4.5% prior) should help the overall services category decelerate on the year.