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Political betting markets show Prime Minister Mario Draghi as the clear favourite to take over the presidency in the 24 January parliamentary vote.

  • Data from Smarkets shows Draghi with a 56.5% implied probability of becoming president according to bettors. Marta Cartabia, current Minister of Justice and former President of the Constitutional Court, is second-favourite, with an 8% implied probability of becoming the next president.
  • The favoured candidate of the centre-right and right, former PM Silvio Berlusconi, sits in third place with a 7.7% implied probability of becoming president. While he has the support of legislators on the right, those in the centre and on the left are staunchly opposed to the prospect of a Berlusconi presidency, making it difficult for the media magnate to secure a majority in favour.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of becoming next President of Italy, %

Source: Smarkets.

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