Drop In Illegal Crossings At US-Mexico Border Could Boost Harris

Semafor reports that, “illegal crossings of the US-Mexico border fell in July to around a fifth of their peak, reaching their lowest level since 2020.” The reduction in crossings comes after a series of policies enacted by Washington and New Mexico bolster restrictions on migrants reaching the border.

• On the Mexican side, Mexico’s National Guard have disrupted camps and bussed migrants back to the southern border. On the US side, an executive order signed by Biden in June has allowed for easier deportation and tightened access to asylum.
• The Wall Street Journal reports: “The moves mark an unprecedented level of cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, both motivated by presidential elections this year, to bring down illegal border crossings in hopes of diverting attention away from the issue.”
• US voters have consistently ranked immigration as one of the most critical political issues of the cycle, often second only to the economy. Considering that a majority of respondents report greater trust in Trump to handle immigration, if migrant crossings continue to decrease through the election, it could derisk a major political vulnerability for Kamala Harris.
• The Brookings Institution noted on March 4 that, "Immigration policy could determine the next president of the United States."