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Dry Gas Production Down From Record to Support 2H23 Price: EIA STEO

NATGAS

US dry natural gas production in forecast around 103bcf/d in 2H23, down slightly from a record 104bcf/d during April reflecting reduced natural gas-directed drilling due to lower prices according to the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook released yesterday.

  • EIA expect growth of associated natural gas production in the Permian Basin to mostly offset declines in dry gas output.
  • Output is estimated at 102.74bcf/day in 2023 compared with 101.09bcf/day projected in May and 2024 is forecast at 103.04bcf/d compared with 101.24bcf/d.
  • Output to grow annually in 2024 at an average rate of 0.3bcf/d vs prior forecast of 0.15bcf/d.
  • Natural gas prices are expected to increase throughout the summer as production declines slightly and demand for air conditioning increases. Henry Hub is forecast at almost 2.90$/mmbtu in 2H23, up from the May average of 2.15$/mmbtu. Henry Hub is forecast almost 30% higher in 2024 compared with 2023 to 3.40$/mmbtu but down from the 3.72$/mmbtu forecast last month.


Source: EIA STEO

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