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Durable Goods Revisions Amplify An Otherwise Small Miss


Core durable goods data were weaker than expected in the preliminary July print, especially when factoring in downward revisions.

  • Orders increased +0.1% M/M (cons 0.1) but after a downward revised -0.4% M/M (initial 0.1) in June.
  • Shipments surprisingly fell -0.2% M/M (cons -0.1%) after a downward revised -0.1% M/M (initial 0.1).
  • The orders trend is now seen unchanged at ~1.8% annualized, but it had been tracking at 2.4% annualized as of the initial June data. Either way, it continues to exhibit resilience to the heavy contraction implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as has been the case for some months now.
  • The report takes off some of the gloss from the 0.5% rebound in manufacturing production in July after the -0.5% of June.

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