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Durable New Orders Much Weaker Than Expected

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys climbed off opening lows following weaker than expected Durable New Orders for March: +0.5% vs. +2.5% est, analysts cited nagging supply chain constraints, and volatile aircraft orders.

  • Bonds lead the rally through midmorning and stalled after US APRIL DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX AT 37.3 -- well above 30.0 estimate (28.9 in March). Rates held higher levels on narrow range through the FI close.
  • Week's Tsy auctions front-ended to accommodate Wednesday's FOMC policy annc.
  • The $60B 2Y note (91282CBX8) auction tailed slightly with high yield of 0.175% vs. 0.170%, matching last Decembers 0.5% tail. Bid-to-cover lowest since June 2020 at 2.34x vs. 2.56x 5 month average.
  • The $61B 5Y note (91282CBW0) auction came in near on-the-screws with high yield of 0.849% vs. 0.850% WI. Bid-to-cover lowest since July 2020 at 2.31x vs. 2.34x 5 month average.
  • Late headline re: 2020 Census, House announces apportionment changes for next decade: rejiggering number of House seats may be boon for GOP.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 0.1697%, 5-Yr is up 1.5bps at 0.8311%, 10-Yr is up 1.1bps at 1.5684%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 2.243%.
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