E-Minis Fail To Challenge Initial Support

The well-documented and short-lived Wagner Group-led situation in Russia, weakness in mainland Chinese equities after an elongated weekend and another softer European economic data release helped bias S&P 500 e-minis lower in pre-NY trade, although the contract found a bit of a base before bears managed to force a challenge of key short-term support at the 20-day EMA. That leaves the contract -0.1% or so at typing, ~10 points off lows.

• As a result, our technical analyst has flagged that the bull theme in the contract remains intact and the pullback appears to be a correction. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind.
• A quick reminder that the month-/quarter-end models that we have flagged in recent days project a rotation of funds out of equities and into bonds given relative performance over those horizons (these flows are now usually more dynamic in timing than in periods gone by).