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Early Bear Steepening Sets The Tone, BoJ Decision Next Up

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade between 1.5-6bp cheaper, having established the move earlier in the US session before mostly sidelining.
  • The primary cheapening came from crude futures surging higher on Red Sea traffic disruption. Separately, further FOMC pushback from Goolsbee and Mester on the market timing and size of rate cuts, both over the weekend and early today, initially had limited impact but might have helped feed into the move.
  • 10Y yields sit 4.3bp higher on the day, driven entirely by real yields +4.8bps. At 1.74%, the latter remains within Friday’s range and is firmly below the ~2% levels seen prior to Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
  • TYH4 at 112-07+ trades just off an earlier low of 112-06 having kept to a particularly narrow 4 tick range for more than five hours now. It remains off support at 111-31+ (Dec 14 low) whilst the trend needle points north with resistance at 112-28+ and 113-12+ (Fibo projections of the Oct 19 – Nov 3 – Nov 13 price swings).
  • Fed Funds show 19bp of cumulative cuts for March and 142bp to end-2024.
  • Overnight sees the BoJ decision before tomorrow’s docket features further Fedspeak and housing data.
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