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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
We await a meeting this afternoon between Pres Biden and House Speaker McCarthy (no time set as yet) aimed at reviving high-level debt limit negotiations which went on "pause" Friday after the Republicans and Democrats found themselves too far apart on the outlines of a deal.
- The ongoing debt ceiling impasse has seen the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed depleted to $57.3B as of Thursday's close, the lowest amount of the year and vs $316B at the end of May.
- This is dangerous territory ahead of a key mid-June tax receipt date (the Treasury basically runs a deficit in the first half of June but a surplus in the 2nd half): Treasury Sec Yellen said Sunday that while cash flows are somewhat unpredictable, "the odds of reaching June 15 while being able to pay all of our bills is quite low.”
- That may be partly political posturing, but analysts are increasingly concerned over the potential for cash depletion by the 2nd week of June.
- The key number for the TGA is $30B, below which the Treasury could clearly signal it is on the brink of running out of cash and name a deadline.
- On top of the cash balance, the remaining extraordinary measures are seen between $87-92B as of today, but could diminish to near zero by the 2nd week of June.
Source: US Treasury, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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