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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NETHERLANDS
While there are still several months to run until the 22 November general election, early opinion polling shows a fractured political landscape following the collapse of long-standing PM Mark Rutte's coalition gov't. The announcement by three senior party leaders - Rutte, the centrist Democrats66 (D66)'s Sigrid Kaag and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)'s Wopke Hoekstra - that they will not run as heads of their party adds a further element of uncertainty as to future gov't policy direction.
- Prior to the March provincial elections, Rutte's centre-right liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) held a comfortable lead in polls as the largest party.
- A major outperformance by the populist agrarian Farmer-Citizens Movement (BBB) saw the party rise sharply in polls to top spot through April, May, and June.
- Since the collapse of the Rutte IV gov't and the calling of the election, two major centre-left parties - the social democratic Labour Party (PvdA) and the environmentalist GreenLeft (GL) - have agreed to run on a joint ticket. They have since risen to lead/hold a joint lead in polling.
- Given the Netherlands' proportional electoral system, coalition-buildingwith numerous parties is the norm. Nevertheless, with the VVD, BBB, and GL/PvdA, and the right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV) all vying for top spot it is unclear whether the next gov't could lean further right or left than the previous administration.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling for Dutch General Election, Seats
Source: Ipsos, Peil.nl, I&O, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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