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Early Rally Extends

GILTS

Gilt futures clear 98.00 (highs of 98.06 so far), with bulls eying the May 10 high of 98.29.

  • Cash gilt yields are 4.5-5.5bp lower across the curve, although none of the major benchmarks have tested their early May lows as of yet.
  • Catch up to the late NY extension of yesterday’s rally in U.S. Tsys and a focus on deeper policy support out of China play into the early London bid.
  • Most SONIA futures also tick higher as well, last flat to +4.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~57bp of cuts through year end, with ~13bp of easing priced through the June MPC.
  • Both those metrics stick within recent ranges following the post-MPC dovish repricing seen in recent sessions.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.072-12.8
Aug-244.942-25.8
Sep-244.849-35.1
Nov-244.724-47.6
Dec-244.633-56.7
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Gilt futures clear 98.00 (highs of 98.06 so far), with bulls eying the May 10 high of 98.29.

  • Cash gilt yields are 4.5-5.5bp lower across the curve, although none of the major benchmarks have tested their early May lows as of yet.
  • Catch up to the late NY extension of yesterday’s rally in U.S. Tsys and a focus on deeper policy support out of China play into the early London bid.
  • Most SONIA futures also tick higher as well, last flat to +4.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~57bp of cuts through year end, with ~13bp of easing priced through the June MPC.
  • Both those metrics stick within recent ranges following the post-MPC dovish repricing seen in recent sessions.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.072-12.8
Aug-244.942-25.8
Sep-244.849-35.1
Nov-244.724-47.6
Dec-244.633-56.7