May 15, 2024 08:10 GMT
Early Rally Extends
GILTS
Gilt futures clear 98.00 (highs of 98.06 so far), with bulls eying the May 10 high of 98.29.
- Cash gilt yields are 4.5-5.5bp lower across the curve, although none of the major benchmarks have tested their early May lows as of yet.
- Catch up to the late NY extension of yesterday’s rally in U.S. Tsys and a focus on deeper policy support out of China play into the early London bid.
- Most SONIA futures also tick higher as well, last flat to +4.0.
- BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~57bp of cuts through year end, with ~13bp of easing priced through the June MPC.
- Both those metrics stick within recent ranges following the post-MPC dovish repricing seen in recent sessions.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 5.072 | -12.8 |
Aug-24 | 4.942 | -25.8 |
Sep-24 | 4.849 | -35.1 |
Nov-24 | 4.724 | -47.6 |
Dec-24 | 4.633 | -56.7 |
147 words