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Early Regional Fed Mfg Surveys Point To Neutral Bias For ISM

US DATA
  • The Richmond Fed manufacturing index was broadly in line with expectations in July, ticking down to -9 (cons -10) from a downward revised -8 (initially -7).
  • Some more extensive revisions have left it in a particularly tight range of -8 to -12 for the past five months now.
  • Combined with the Empire survey ticking down from 6.1 to 1.1 (small by its standards) and the Philly Fed survey almost unchanged at -13.5, the average of the three has consolidated June’s improvement from a particularly weak 1H23, albeit at a still subdued -7 in July.
  • This figure is at a level that implies roughly neutral bias to the June ISM reading of 46.0, having regularly been pointing to downside risk in prior months.

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