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Early weakness as markets keep an eye on German inflation

BOND SUMMARY
  • Early Bund weakness was helped by early above-expected German state CPI prints and Spanish CPI coming in a but higher than expected. This saw the Bund futures contract move below Friday's low, touching 169.48 before partially retracing some of today's losses. Peripheral spreads are largely unchanged this morning. Italian inflation was a tick lower than expected but had little market impact.
  • After an uneventful overnight session, Treasury futures have followed Bund futures this morning.
  • In terms of supply, Belgium has sold E3.4bln nominal of 4/10/30-year OLOs while France is due to sell up to E6.5bln of BTFs later today.
  • Following the state CPI data, the German national inflation print is now expected to come in 0.1-0.2ppt higher than consensus had originally expected.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-6 today at 131-24 with 10y UST yields unch at 1.596% and 2y yields unch at 0.143%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.36 today at 169.58 with 10y Bund yields up 2.5bp at -0.158% and Schatz yields up 1.1bp at -0.658%.
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