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Earnings Running Hotter Than Norges Bank Forecast


Norway earnings data shows earnings are running hotter than both Norges Bank projections as well as the Q3 Regional Network Survey, but wage dynamics may be driving an artificially high reading this quarter. Average monthly basic earnings rose 6.4% Y/Y in Q3 (vs 5.2% in Q2), faster than the 5.5% annual nominal wage growth pencilled in at the September NB forecast round. Similarly, the Q3 Regional Network survey saw annual wage growth of 5.4%.

  • Statistics Norway note that timings of wage settlements across industries may be skewing the statistics, with some industries receiving 2023 settlements earlier than usual and others receiving 2022 settlements late. Thus, the Q4 figures (released in Feb 2024) should provide a better picture of actual wage dynamics in Norway.
  • At an industry level, average earnings ranged from 4.4% Y/Y in financial and insurance activities (2% employment share) to 7.2% Y/Y in education (8% employment share). Human health and social work activities (with a 22% share) had 6.5% Y/Y growth.
  • The release was not a major mover for NOK, but will be another data point feeding into the Norges Bank December decision. Markets now look to Governor Bache's speech at 1400GMT today and tomorrow's October CPI for additional inputs.

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