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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB and BoE cut pricing extended slightly Tuesday amid a wider fixed income rally, helped in part by a less hawkish BoJ meeting than had been expected overnight.
- There are 155bp of ECB rate cuts priced for 2024, around 4bp more than had been seen Monday - with the first cut firmly priced by April (32bp) and a decent chance implied of March (~40%).
- Two hikes are fully priced by June, a third (and nearly a fourth) by July, and a fourth/fifth by September and October respectively.
- Rates markets largely shrugged off ECB commentary included an arguably less dovish Villeroy (noting a "plateau" of rates ahead before a 2024 cut). ECB's Lane speaks Wednesday.
- BoE cut pricing currently shows 121bp of 2024 cuts priced, up 5bp on the day - with the first reduction by June, and two cuts by August / three by September, and four by November (the December pricing doesn't quite imply a 5th full cut).
- Comments by BoE's Breeden today didn't really move the needle. UK CPI is eyed as the next key catalyst Wednesday.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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