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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessECB Cut Pricing Pulls Back Following Flash CPI Releases
ECB implied rates have moved away from intraday highs, but this morning's flash inflation data continues to be judged hawkishly, with 85bps of cuts priced through the remainder of 2024 (vs 93bps this morning).
- Today's hawkish extreme saw 2024 cut pricing pullback to 83bps.
- We have seen quite a difference of opinion amongst analysts in response to this morning's German state level data, so there will still be substantial interest in the national CPI release at 1300GMT/1400CET.
- MNI's interpretation sits on the hawkish end of the spectrum, alongside Goldman Sachs who track German core HICP at 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.2% going into the release).
- Following the German data, US PCE at 1330GMT will also be of interest.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Mar-24 | 3.904 | -0.2 |
Apr-24 | 3.864 | -4.2 |
Jun-24 | 3.694 | -21.2 |
Jul-24 | 3.557 | -34.9 |
Sep-24 | 3.368 | -53.8 |
Oct-24 | 3.218 | -68.8 |
Dec-24 | 3.052 | -85.4 |
Jan-25 | 2.922 | -98.4 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.