ECB Pricing Flat To A Touch Lower, Terminal Rate Pricing Sticky

ECB-dated OIS pricing is little changed to incrementally softer today, with ECB speak broadly reaffirming the need to raise interest rates further, albeit with a move closer to the end of the hiking cycle becoming a little more evident in some instances (namely via dove Stournaras and hawk Nagel, with the latter going as far as outlining an identical understanding of policy with President Lagarde)

• ECB-dated OIS price action has seemingly been more influenced by the lack of specifics re: the hiking cycle in a Nikkei interview with President Lagarde. She also stressed that "we have just announced that we expect to discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July 2023. Nothing further has been discussed by the Governing Council, neither a proposal to sell assets under the APP, nor a change to the forward guidance that we have given in relation to the PEPP."
• Market participants remain reluctant to fully price in 2 further 25bp rate hikes, with ~45bp of cumulative tightening showing come the end of the ECB’s September meeting, representing a terminal ECB deposit rate of ~3.70% (or just below 3.60% in €STR terms).