ECB Pricing Little Changed On Day, Sintra & CPI Eyed

ECB-dated OIS is little changed across the strip today, with a 25bp hike at next month’s meeting ~90% priced and a terminal deposit rate of just below 4.00% currently seen.

• Weekend ECB speak saw Vice President de Guindos reiterate the idea that the Bank is moving into the final stretch of its tightening cycle, as he underscored the importance of underlying inflation movements and an awareness of the risk of second-round inflationary impulses.
• Elsewhere, Irish Central Bank Governor Makhlouf stuck with the centre of the ECB, noting that he is not sure what decisions will be taken beyond the Bank’s summer break, along with indicating the likelihood of another 25bp hike in July. Makhlouf told the Irish Independent “I do feel that we're near the top of the ladder. Some others may feel we're further down, but we'll see.”
• The ECB’s annual Sintra forum gets underway this evening. President Lagarde will open the event and the full schedule can be found here.
• Some sell-side desks have questioned the market-moving capability of the event given the stage in the global tightening cycles and the deluge of central bank speak released in recent times.
• Friday’s flash Eurozone CPI data presents the other major focal point for market participants this week.