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ECB purchase pace in focus

BOND SUMMARY

It's been a risk-off start to the session following the sacking of the CBRT Governor over the weekend by President Erdogan and more headlines suggesting vaccine nationalism from the EU.

  • Treasuries, Bunds and, to a lesser extent, gilts are all higher on the day, erasing some of the downside moves seen last week after the FOMC meeting.
  • There has been focus this morning on EU-UK relations after wires reported that the EU would block any attempts to export the AZ/Oxford vaccine to the UK. This would have only marginal impact on the UK's supply of vaccines, but of course has larger political ramifications. Any attempt to block exports of the Pfizer vaccine to the UK would have much more serious consequences for the UK's vaccine rollout with a number of second doses dependent upon imports from the EU.
  • Later today, focus will be on the ECB's bond purchases in the week to Wednesday. This data is due for release at 14:45GMT/10:45ET and will give the first indication of how much faster the ECB is buying bonds following its promise to step up the purchase pace at the last Governing Council meeting.
  • There are a number of key policymakers making speeches at the BIS conference this week.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-12 today at 131-19 with 10y UST yields down -4.3bp at 1.680% and 2y yields down -0.9bp at 0.142%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.38 today at 171.60 with 10y Bund yields down -2.4bp at -0.319% and Schatz yields down -0.9bp at -0.711%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.17 today at 127.70 with 10y yields down -1.3bp at 0.823% and 2y yields down -0.1bp at 0.084%.

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