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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessECB Rate Cut Pricing Moderates Further Through Lane Speech
ECB Lane's Q&A at the Brookings Institution has ended, with his rhetoric broadly in line with previous comments r.e. needing more confidence in inflation and wage growth dynamics before considering easing. Global core FI and the Euribor strip drifted lower through the speech, though this was largely a continuation of today's price action rather than any Lane-specific dynamics.
- ECB-dated OIS contracts now price around 121bps of rate cuts through 2024 (down from 125bps this morning). This is the smallest amount of easing priced through 2024 since November last year.
- Tomorrow's docket features final CPI readings from Germany alongside Italian industrial production, though the annual CPI revisions in the US will likely garner most cross-market attention.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Mar-24 | 3.882 | -2.6 |
Apr-24 | 3.770 | -13.8 |
Jun-24 | 3.526 | -38.2 |
Jul-24 | 3.311 | -59.7 |
Sep-24 | 3.082 | -82.6 |
Oct-24 | 2.900 | -100.8 |
Dec-24 | 2.701 | -120.7 |
Jan-25 | 2.547 | -136.1 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.