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ECB's Underlying Metrics Show Further Deceleration In November

EUROZONE DATA

The ECB's underlying inflation metrics have been updated for the final Eurozone November HICP, and provide more evidence of strong disinflation.

  • The overall PCCI (Persistent and Common Component of Inflation) index was 2.05% Y/Y (vs 2.37% in October, downwardly revised from 2.46% prior).
  • The updated PCCI ex-energy and food readings were below 2% in October and November. The latest reading was 1.80% Y/Y, with October's revised down to 1.98% Y/Y (vs an unrevised 2.01% prior).
  • The other underlying measures calculated by the ECB (Supercore, weighted median and 10/30% trimmed mean) also decelerated by -0.5 to -0.6pp in November.
  • The 10% trimmed mean and weighted median measures fell below 4% for the first time since December 2021 and March 2022 respectively.
  • A reminder that December HICP is expected to bounce back in December, in large part due to higher German energy prices (after subsidies depressed prices back in December 2022). However, focus will as always be on the progress of disinflation in core metrics.

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