ECB Speakers Weigh In On Rate Outlook Post ECB Decision

ECB cut pricing has deepened a little since yesterday’s meeting, with 80bps of cuts priced through ’24 (vs 76bps post-press conference).

• 21/22bps of cuts are priced through the June meeting, with widespread expectations for the Bank to start the cutting cycle at that gathering.
• This morning, the hawkish leaning Kazaks noted that rates would be cut in June absent any surprises, while the dovish Stournaras re-iterated his preference for 4 rate cuts in 2024.
• Stournaras’ unsurprisingly dovish comments suggests he was one of the “few” Governing Council members already confident enough in the inflation trajectory to cut rates (Bloomberg reports that as many as 5 members formed this contingent).
• ECB sources told Reuters yesterday that the bank cannot ignore fully the Fed in determining when to ease Eurozone policy, in contrast to Stournaras’ views this morning.
• The Euribor strip is +2.5 to +4.0 ticks through the blues.
• Already released final March CPI data headlines today’s regional calendar, with German, French and Spanish figures broadly confirming their respective flash estimates.