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ECB Terminal Hits New Peak, 50bp March Hike Fully Priced

STIR

This morning's strong European Services PMIs saw an uptick in ECB hike expectations, but upward pricing has re-accelerated in the last hour following the US PMI beat.

  • Terminal ECB rates briefly seen at 3.78% in September 2023 (128bp from current depo rate), though that's pulled back slightly in the past few minutes.
  • A 50bp March hike is almost 100% priced (49.9bp).

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