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ECI Wages & Salaries Accelerate Notably But Led By Public Sector

  • The overall ECI increased 1.07% annualized in Q3 for a ‘low’ beat of 1.0 consensus, after an unrevised 1.02% in Q2.
  • Wages & salaries show a more notable acceleration on the quarter though, up from 0.9% to 1.20% annualized for technically the fastest since 2Q22.
  • Perhaps dampening the impact of this strength in wages & salaries is the fact that it looks driven by the public sector.
  • The private sector ECI printed 1.01% in Q3 for almost exactly the same pace as 1.02% in Q2, whilst private sector wages & salaries printed 1.06% after 1.00%.
  • Private sector wage pressures are better described as stabilizing at a still strong rate rather than re-accelerating – see charts.

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