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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
- The surge in ST rates amid aggressive NBH tightening keeps pricing in a significant deceleration in the economic activity.
- Hungary 3Y yield has been retracing sharply higher in March following the dramatic HUF depreciation due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
- The 3Y yield broke above the 6% level and is currently standing at its highest level since November 2012.
- Historically, a sharp increase in ST rates tends to weigh on the business cycle.
- The chart below shows that the 2-year change in Hungary 3Y yield has strongly led the industrial production (proxy for economic activity) by 6 months in the past cycle.
- Will the sharp tightening cycle run by the NBH lead to a recession in Hungary in late 2022/early 2023?
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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