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Economic Team Continue Work On Fiscal Framework

BRAZIL
  • The lack of bad news and the more optimistic price action for US equities has improved sentiment for the Brazilian real. USDBRL dropped just shy of 1% yesterday to close around 5.16 and price is close to unchanged at today’s open. Immediate attention is on the opening gap from the February 24 open between 5.15 and 5.13, however, more notable support lies at 5.1106, the Feb 23 low. A break of this level would instead signal scope for a return to 4.9410, the Feb 2 low.
    • One-month volatility stands at 15.3%, narrowing the gap with 14.3%, which would represent the lowest level of the post-pandemic era.
  • Brazil’s economic team is said to be working to present the fiscal framework before the March 22 BCB decision in order to put extra pressure on policy makers to show a more clear signal they intend to start an easing cycle soon
    • The proposal still needs to be discussed with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and other ministers.
    • For reference, on Monday vice president Alckmin chimed in on the need for lower interest rates, reiterating the administration’s message that they are needed to promote growth.
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