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Economic Tendency Improves, Feb Retail Data Contracts Further

SWEDEN
MNI (London)

SWEDEN MAR ECONOMIC TENDENCY SURVEY 88.2 (FCST 85); FEB 86.2r

  • Swedish economic sentiment surprised to the upside in March, with the Economic Tendency index rising for a second month, up two points to 88.2 on the back of a broad-based improvements across sectors.
  • Manufacturing confidence rose as production expectations strengthened, and services ticked up albeit remaining weak. Consumer confidence improved by 1.7 points to 62.8, as pessimism regarding personal finance situations and the 12-month Swedish economy outlooks declined.
  • Despite retail confidence seeing the largest March improvement, the indicator remains the most negative.
  • This is in line with a continued trend of weak Swedish consumer retail spending. Swedish retail sales data from this morning recorded a -1.2% m/m February contraction, the third consecutive m/m fall. Sales dropped a marked -9.4% y/y, 2.4pp sharper than consensus expectations. The annualised fall in sales was the largest since 1992, driven by both durables and consumables.
  • Statistics Sweden noted that “after the decline that has been going on for some time, the retail sales volume is now back at a similar level as before the pandemic.”

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