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Economist Survey Trims Rate Forecasts Following Dovish BCCh

CHILE
  • In the midst of the US inflation data, Chile’s central bank have released its latest survey of economists. Within the report, the 2023 year-end rate forecast has been lowered to 7.5% vs 8.00% in the prior survey. Further details are as follows:
    • Economists see the key rate by 100bps at both the September and November meeting.
    • The key rate would then drop to 5.00% in 11 months, and fall again to 4.00% in 23 months.
    • Consumer prices to rise 0.3% m/m in August.
    • 2023 year-end inflation lowered to 4.1% vs 4.2% last survey.
    • 2024 year-end inflation held at 3.0%.
    • For GDP: 2023 forecast held at -0.5%, 2024 forecast held at 2.0%, 2025 forecast held at 2.2%.
    • Peso to trade at 820 CLP/USD in 11 months, and 800 in 23 months.

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