Economists Expect Data To Show Stable Labour Market

With the RBA observing in its October meeting minutes that “the labour market had reached a turning point” and that “additional data” on the labour market will be monitored for the November meeting, there is likely to be a lot of attention on Thursday’s September employment report. Bloomberg consensus has 20k new jobs with the unemployment rate stable at 3.7%. The composition and underemployment will also be important.

• August employment rose a stronger-than-expected 64.9k but it was driven by part-time jobs. If that trend continues in September then it is likely to be another sign that the labour market is easing. Job growth estimates are in a wide range between -10k and +45k. ANZ and Westpac are at consensus but CBA is forecasting +25k and NAB +30k.
• The unemployment rate is generally expected to be steady at 3.7% with forecasts in a narrow range of 3.6% to 3.8%. ANZ, NAB and Westpac are all forecasting 3.7% but CBA expects it to rise to 3.8% due to the increase in the supply of labour from strong immigration.
• The participation rate is forecast to remain at 67%.