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Economists Split Re July Meeting Decision

RBA

The RBA surprised many economists by hiking rates 25bp to 4.1% at its June 6 meeting (see MNI RBA Preview – June 2023 here). In a Reuters survey following the meeting, analysts now expect one more tightening by September with rates then peaking at 4.35%, 25bp higher than the pre-meeting poll. Governor Lowe said on Wednesday that “more tightening may be required” and that the Board’s patience is limited.

  • 20 of the 26 polled expect rates to reach 4.35% by September with the others expecting them to stay at 4.1%. 16 are forecasting a pause in July including ANZ, CBA and NAB but Westpac expects +25bp.
  • The highest terminal rate in the survey was 4.85%.
  • In another Reuters poll, home prices are now expected to be flat this year revised up from a double-digit fall forecast only 3-months ago.
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