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Economists Still Expect 9.0% Year-end SELIC Rate

BRAZIL
  • Ahead of Wednesday’s Copom meeting, BRL underperformed yesterday as fiscal data showed that the government ran the biggest budget deficit for the month of December since at least 1997. The central government deficit came in at BRL 116.1bn last month, vs. 117.0bn expected, taking the full-year primary deficit to BRL 230.5bn (2.1% of GDP). Treasury secretary Ceron described this as satisfactory, however, saying that the recovery in the fiscal position would be clearer this year. Attention turns back to Haddad’s negotiations with Congress over the payroll tax measures, on which he expects to reach an agreement soon.
  • On the data front, December job creation and federal debt figures will be published at 1730GMT(1230ET). Treasury Secretary Ceron will address the fiscal data at a press conference at 1800GMT. Earlier, FGV inflation rose by 0.07% m/m in January (vs. +0.24% expected), taking the y/y rate to -3.32%, from -3.18%. Separately, the latest BCB weekly economist survey showed that analysts still expect the SELIC rate to end this year at 9.0%, reaching 8.5% in 2025.
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