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Economy “Solid”, Consumption Outlook Positive

INDONESIA

Bank Indonesia (BI) meets today and is unanimously expected to leave rates at 5.75% where they have been since January (see MNI BI Preview - June 2023). The May meeting statement said that policy was focused on FX stabilisation and supporting sustainable growth, while also noting that activity “remains solid”. In the MNI Indonesia Macro Outlook, we look at some of those economic developments.

  • Domestic demand grew 3.7% y/y in Q1 with private consumption stronger at 4.5%.
  • While the S&P Global manufacturing PMI only just held above the breakeven-50 level in May, the consumer outlook is more positive. Consumer confidence rose 1.7% to 128.3 in May, the highest in a year. It has been trending higher since September and is pointing to a pickup in household expenditure.
  • Retail sales have troughed and have been improving since the start of 2023 and sentiment suggests that this should continue over the coming months. But domestic vehicle sales have been softening.
Indonesia consumer outlook

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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