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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessEcuador Election Date Confirmed, JPMorgan Downgrade Growth Forecasts
- The electoral authority confirmed Aug. 20 as the date for presidential and legislative elections, in a post on Twitter. A runoff could be necessary if no candidate gets more than 50% in the first round, or 40% with a 10-point margin over the runner-up. This runoff would take place on October 15.
- JPMorgan have noted the transition period promises to be a bumpy one, as popular rejection of presidential decrees could trigger social unrest. While there is still uncertainty on the candidates, recent February elections show Correismo runs with an advantage, while right vote fragmentation appears as the main risk.
- JPM have revised their 2023 annual GDP forecast down to 1.9%y/y from 2.5%, assuming lower investment and exports growth (+1.5%y/y and 0.5%y/y, respectively). Based on lower statistical carryover, JPM also revise down their 2024 GDP growth to 1.7%y/y. That said, amid latent risks of social protests they flag that their forecast risk remains skewed to the downside.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.