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Ecuador Election Date Confirmed, JPMorgan Downgrade Growth Forecasts

LATAM
  • The electoral authority confirmed Aug. 20 as the date for presidential and legislative elections, in a post on Twitter. A runoff could be necessary if no candidate gets more than 50% in the first round, or 40% with a 10-point margin over the runner-up. This runoff would take place on October 15.
  • JPMorgan have noted the transition period promises to be a bumpy one, as popular rejection of presidential decrees could trigger social unrest. While there is still uncertainty on the candidates, recent February elections show Correismo runs with an advantage, while right vote fragmentation appears as the main risk.
  • JPM have revised their 2023 annual GDP forecast down to 1.9%y/y from 2.5%, assuming lower investment and exports growth (+1.5%y/y and 0.5%y/y, respectively). Based on lower statistical carryover, JPM also revise down their 2024 GDP growth to 1.7%y/y. That said, amid latent risks of social protests they flag that their forecast risk remains skewed to the downside.

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