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Ecuador Leftist Candidate Leading Presidential Polling

LATAM
  • Ecuador markets remaining focused on the August 20 elections. A most recent survey of 3,656 Ecuadorian voters by Comunicaliza showed left-wing candidate Luisa Gonzalez with a voting intent of 25.9%, followed by centrist former Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner with 11.2%.
    • Other candidates in the top five of the field of eight included Indigenous leader Yaku Perez with 10.3%, anti-corruption activist Fernando Villavicencio with 8%, and agricultural entrepreneur Xavier Hervas with 6.2%.
    • Interestingly, BancTrust head of research and strategy released a note that said candidate Luisa Gonzalez, close to self-exiled former President Rafael Correa, could win the snap elections in the first round. They cited Political fragmentation and the inability of some traditional parties to field candidates “could allow Correism to secure a first-round win”.
    • They also noted that Ecuador’s political stalemate is likely to continue regardless of the electoral outcome, improving chances for Correa to regain power in 2025.
    • For reference, to win the election in the first round, a candidate needs to win an absolute majority or at least 40% with a 10-point margin over the runner up.
  • Separately, an article cropped up yesterday on reuters stating that Ecuador will lose $1.2 billion in oil income per year if a proposal to bar production in one of its major oil blocks is successful at the ballot box in August, according to the energy minister speaking on Tuesday.
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