ECUADOR-Moderate Noboa Secures Presidency

Centrist candidate Daniel Noboa has secured the Ecuadorian presidency, defeating left-wing correista candidate Luisa González by 52% to 48% in the 15 October run-off. Noboa will now serve out the remainder of outgoing President Guillermo Lasso's term, with the next election taking place in May 2025. As such, while Noboa comes to office with pledges of improving security amid widespread cartel-related violence and rebuilding the country's economy, he will have precious little time to enact these policies before having to begin campaigning once again.

• Noboa will also be constrained by a fragmented National Assembly. There, left-wing former President Rafael Correa's Citizen Revolution Movement (RC) has secured the most seats (although short of an outright majority). Noboa's centrist National Democratic Action came in third place behind RC and the big-tent Movimiento Construye (MC25), whose presidential candidate, anti-corruption crusader Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated during the campaign. To pass legislation Noboa's bloc will need the support of numerous other parties, potentially watering-down policies or requiring concessions.
• The new president's cabinet picks will also be important. Ahead of the first-round election Noboa was seen as an also-ran. This lack of expectation, combined with him coming to power as Ecuador's youngest-ever president at just 35, will mean the composition of his group of ministers important in terms of signalling policy priorities.